DDA on 5000 hands indicates the H2 was the worst possible lead, while the HJ is the best possible. HJ beats contract 53% vs 46% for H2. Other suit leads are between 49% to 51%. Similar pattern for average tricks (more suitable for when playing MPs not teams), 6.64 for the HJ with 6.4 for the H2, others ~6.5. One rationale for this is that declarer is likely to hold HK and HQ (given his HCP), leading the HJ "forces" him to win and when pard gets in with his say 6hcp he can lead a second heart thru declarer. The low heart allows declarer to steal a trick with the H8 which he or dummy are far more likely to hold than pard (number of possible "vacant spaces" in two hands vs one hand of pard's.
EW presumably playing strong 1NT.
ReplyDeleteThe heart 2 works in this case but more standard would be the lead from the interior sequence. Further analysis called for.
DDA on 5000 hands indicates the H2 was the worst possible lead, while the HJ is the best possible. HJ beats contract 53% vs 46% for H2. Other suit leads are between 49% to 51%. Similar pattern for average tricks (more suitable for when playing MPs not teams), 6.64 for the HJ with 6.4 for the H2, others ~6.5. One rationale for this is that declarer is likely to hold HK and HQ (given his HCP), leading the HJ "forces" him to win and when pard gets in with his say 6hcp he can lead a second heart thru declarer. The low heart allows declarer to steal a trick with the H8 which he or dummy are far more likely to hold than pard (number of possible "vacant spaces" in two hands vs one hand of pard's.
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