Intermediate 15/10/2015 Hand 22

Board 22 East Deals E-W Vul	♠ K J 3 ♥ K 4 2 ♦ A 7 5 3 ♣ K 9 8
♠ A 2 ♥ Q J 10 8 3 ♦ K Q 2 ♣ Q 7 4	N W E S	♠ 10 7 6 5 ♥ 5 ♦ J 10 6 4 ♣ 6 5 3 2
	♠ Q 9 8 4 ♥ A 9 7 6 ♦ 9 8 ♣ A J 10

NS 3N; NS 3♠; NS 2♥; S 2♦; NS 2♣; N 1♦; Par +400

West	North	East	South
		Pass	Pass
1 ♥	Dbl	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♦	Pass	3 NT
All pass

Lead: ♥ 8

With west's balanced shape may open 1 NT. This sequence happened at 2 tables. 2S should show a limited hand say 8-10hcp. Stronger hands need to cue hearts. North's 3D should show a strong hand, not a minimum X and balanced shape as here.
The H8 was led at 2 tables. West knows that east should have close to a yarborough, so oppo should have the AK hearts. Therefore leading the H8 probably costs a trick most time when NS has the 9, which is slightly worse than 50/50 (because NS are picture card rich it is not a simple 2 hands of oppo vs 1 hand of pard calc), whereas the HQ is unlikely to cost a trick at all.

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