The right lead might depend on the bidding. But other things being equal the lead of a suit headed by two touching honours is reasonable. If so lead high so the cQ.
I'll do a DDA on it assuming either 1NT 4S. or 1NT transfer 4S. Pretty sure the singleton from east should be big winner as gets ruffs whenever pard has HA plus when pard has spade control and gets in to give u ruff. leading away from K is always a bid dodgy, particular so when oppo probably have a combined 25+hcp and pard has <8hcp.
Assuming a non informative auction like 1NT 4S, then the CQ is slightly superior to the other suits which are slightly superior to the Cx lead. But we are talking <0.1 average tricks from best to worst. Assuming a similarly non informative transfer auction to 4S then the singleton is about 0.07 average tricks better than the next best, the DA, and both of these are hugely better than the others by about 0.3 tricks.
Sorry I only read the first comment a handful of times and completely missed the transfer auction.
With double dummy analysis I think we can discount the dA a little. Double dummy analysis favours this sort of lead some but it assumes that you will always do the right thing at trick to at the sight of dummy since double dummy always does the right thing.
There is some value in leading an ace in that you get a lot more information at trick two. There is also a cost - aces were made for putting on kings (or other honours) to promote lower cards. I remember John Armstrong an extremely talented player from England giving a talk at the 10th anniversary Hawkes Bay Congress where he said something about the difference between bridge in England and in NZ. He said in England players are very reluctant to part with their aces whereas he found ace leads were common in NZ almost to the point where if you don't lead an ace you don't have one. I think that he was right in that is a fault with many less experienced players.
Here with the east hand I would lead the singleton and think there was not a serious alternative lead (for long run success). With a few more points then partner rates to be broke so the singleton lead becomes less attractive I think.
I agree with the Ace comments, apart from possibly slams at MPs. After first reading the Bird/Anthias books I tried leading Aces but it didn't take long before a memory bank was built up of "not a good idea"
With South in 4S what is the right lead for West? I'm thinking QC. And if you play transfers and North is in 4S then East leads 2C or 3H?
ReplyDeleteThe right lead might depend on the bidding. But other things being equal the lead of a suit headed by two touching honours is reasonable. If so lead high so the cQ.
ReplyDeleteI'll do a DDA on it assuming either 1NT 4S. or 1NT transfer 4S. Pretty sure the singleton from east should be big winner as gets ruffs whenever pard has HA plus when pard has spade control and gets in to give u ruff. leading away from K is always a bid dodgy, particular so when oppo probably have a combined 25+hcp and pard has <8hcp.
ReplyDeleteThe question was about a lead from west.
ReplyDeleteActually there were two questions, with lead from east being the second
ReplyDeleteAssuming a non informative auction like 1NT 4S, then the CQ is slightly superior to the other suits which are slightly superior to the Cx lead. But we are talking <0.1 average tricks from best to worst.
ReplyDeleteAssuming a similarly non informative transfer auction to 4S then the singleton is about 0.07 average tricks better than the next best, the DA, and both of these are hugely better than the others by about 0.3 tricks.
Sorry I only read the first comment a handful of times and completely missed the transfer auction.
ReplyDeleteWith double dummy analysis I think we can discount the dA a little. Double dummy analysis favours this sort of lead some but it assumes that you will always do the right thing at trick to at the sight of dummy since double dummy always does the right thing.
There is some value in leading an ace in that you get a lot more information at trick two. There is also a cost - aces were made for putting on kings (or other honours) to promote lower cards. I remember John Armstrong an extremely talented player from England giving a talk at the 10th anniversary Hawkes Bay Congress where he said something about the difference between bridge in England and in NZ. He said in England players are very reluctant to part with their aces whereas he found ace leads were common in NZ almost to the point where if you don't lead an ace you don't have one. I think that he was right in that is a fault with many less experienced players.
Here with the east hand I would lead the singleton and think there was not a serious alternative lead (for long run success). With a few more points then partner rates to be broke so the singleton lead becomes less attractive I think.
I agree with the Ace comments, apart from possibly slams at MPs. After first reading the Bird/Anthias books I tried leading Aces but it didn't take long before a memory bank was built up of "not a good idea"
ReplyDelete